Reboot for FirstEnergy

After last week’s widely-anticipated dividend cut, the question now facing FirstEnergy Corp. is whether its renewed focus on regulated operations will improve the beleaguered utility’s fortunes enough to regain Wall Street’s favor.

FirstEnergy announced on Tuesday it was reducing its quarterly dividend to 36 cents a share from 55 cents, a cut of more than one-third. The move followed a year in which the company’s stock fell 20%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 Utilities Index, according to Bloomberg.

FirstEnergy Stock’s stock performance vs. Exelon and the Dow Jones Utility Index (Source: Yahoo Finance) — FirstEnergy Stock’s stock performance vs. Exelon and the Dow Jones Utility Index(Source: Yahoo Finance)

Not a Surprise

The only surprise to some was that the cut — the first in the company’s 17-year history — wasn’t larger.

Although the company had resisted calls to cut the dividend, the move was widely anticipated by analysts as the company struggled to service its debt and fund capital spending.

Officials said last week that cheap natural gas and the lingering effects of the recession had undermined its competitive business at the same time its cash flow was pressured by about $1 billion in to-date unreimbursed storm damage.

“You have to take a look at reality,” CEO Anthony Alexander told an analysts’ call Wednesday. “The cost of equity became very, very expensive in a very short period of time. As we looked to a total repositioning of the company, this action seemed to be the most effective way to address what needs to get done.”

The company acknowledged that its focus on its unregulated business was a losing strategy at a time of flat demand growth, low energy prices and an unpredictable PJM capacity market. PJM’s real time load-weighted LMPs have dropped by more than 40% since 2008. RTO prices in the annual base capacity auction have fluctuated wildly over the same period, ranging from $16 to $174/MW-day, with a price of $59 last May.

“PJM’s capacity auctions, which are intended to provide support for competitive generators, do not and instead have delivered unpredictable and inadequate results,” Alexander said.

The company said it expects its regulated transmission and distribution businesses to account for more than 90% of its earnings going forward.

Cash Flow

FirstEnergy had negative cash flow of more than $1 billion in 2012 and 2013. Reducing the dividend will save the company $320 million in cash annually, reducing it to a level that can be supported by the more predictable regulated earnings, officials said. The competitive businesses should be self-supporting with potential “upside” if load growth and energy and capacity prices rebound.

Alexander said the moves will strengthen the balance sheet and credit metrics and “derisk the business overall.”

Response to Cut

The company’s shares fell 3% to $31.13 on trading of 14 million shares, three times the average volume, after the news Wednesday. It closed yesterday at $30.88.

The cut was in line with analysts’ consensus, according to Bloomberg, but less than some said was necessary. Analyst Paul Patterson, of Glenrock Associates, said the new dividend payout of 58% of regulated earnings “doesn’t sound particularly aggressive.” Kit Konolige, an analyst for BGC Partners LP said he had expected a 40% cut.

Moody’s Investors Service said although it welcomed the cut it was maintaining its negative outlook on the company’s credit.

Analysts on Wednesday’s call questioned whether the company was considering additional action, including more generation sales or closures, or the sale of the entire competitive operation.

“I’m not going to speculate on what’s out there” in potential sales opportunities, Alexander said in response to one question. “Right now we’re comfortable with the size of the fleet we have,” he added later.

Weak Earnings Forecast

While the dividend cut relieves pressure on the company’s cash flow, the earnings forecast officials outlined last week did little to inspire investor confidence.

The company said it expects to earn $2.45-$2.85 per share in 2014, down from a projected $2.95-$3.05 for last year.

“At the midpoint of guidance, FE has a forward multiple of 12x. For a company with earnings falling 10%, that is not a particularly attractive multiple,” analysts at Seeking Alpha wrote.

“Importantly, this guidance has to leave investors questioning whether FirstEnergy cut the dividend enough. The new dividend will still account for 58% of earnings from FirstEnergy’s main regulated business. Dividend payout ratios above 60% are often unsustainable, so if FirstEnergy’s business continued to erode, another dividend cut would not be out of the question.”

Others in Trouble?

FirstEnergy is hardly alone in its malaise. Exelon Corp. cut its dividend by 41% last February, and officials said it may close unprofitable generating plants this year if capacity prices don’t increase. (See Exelon to Close Generating Plants if No Rebound Next Year.)

Hugh Wynne, analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said last week that even distribution utilities insulated from competitive wholesale markets, including Pepco Holdings Inc., could be forced to cut their dividends. (See related story, Pepco CEO to Retire)

Generation Fleet Leaner

With the deactivation of 5,000 MW of generation within PJM since 2012, and pending sales of other generation, the company’s 13,000 MW generation fleet will be about the same as before its 2011 merger with Allegheny Energy but one that is “more environmentally sound and efficient,” Alexander said. “It’s a much stronger platform of units,” Alexander said.

The company expects annual retail sales of about 100 million MWh, about 25% more than produced by the fleet.

Once it completes spending to comply with the Environmental Protection Agency’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS) and retrofits at the Davis Besse and Beaver Valley nuclear plants, 85% of FE’s capital expenses will be on regulated operations, officials said.

“I don’t see us having to make any cash injections into the competitive business,” said Chief Financial Officer James Pearson. “Their cash flow should be sufficient to fund the capex over the next three years.”

Officials said they were making “aggressive” operations and maintenance reductions with discretionary spending only if it’s justified by a “fundamental upside shift in market dynamics.” For now, any additional free cash from competitive operations will be directed to strengthening the balance sheet or investing in regulated operations.

Bright Spots?

Officials said they were seeing “early indications of a sustained [economic] recovery” in FE’s service territories, projecting a 0.6% load growth in 2014, most of it from industrial customers. Shale gas activity has led to 210 MW of new industrial demand with an additional 430 MW of planned expansion.

The brightest near term opportunities are in the transmission business, with a 20% earnings growth projected for American Transmission Systems Inc. (ATSI) and Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line Co. (TrAIL).

The company also vows to be “far more active in distribution rate filings” than it has been in the past, with rate requests planned this year for West Virginia and Pennsylvania. It expects a ruling shortly from the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities on Jersey Central Power and Light Co.’s request for reimbursement of storm recovery expenses.

January 28, 2014

PJM to Pay MISO $8.6M in Resettlements

PJM will pay MISO $8.6 million to correct market-to-market accounting errors:

Merit Order (4/6/2013 – 7/17/2013) — During the summer seasonal allocation run, PJM incorrectly changed the dispatch priority for some of its generators that came on-line after the April 2004 “freeze” date, causing the units to be dispatched in the calculation of the allocation when they should not have been. This caused incorrect Firm Flow Entitlements (FFEs) to be used in the settlements processing.
Load Forecast (6/1/2013 – 8/14/2013) — The MISO monthly load forecast for MISO LBAs was not getting refreshed, causing the flowgate allocation calculation to use stale load forecast data. This impacted FFEs used in the M2M process.

PJM will begin processing the invoices next month.

January 28, 2014

MRC Preview

Below is a summary of the issues scheduled to be brought to a vote at the Markets and Reliability Committee on Thursday. Each item is listed by agenda number, description and projected time of discussion, followed by a summary of the issue and links to prior coverage in RTO Insider.

RTO Insider will be in Wilmington covering the discussions and votes. See next Tuesday’s newsletter for a full report.

2. PJM MANUALS (9:15-9:25)

The MRC will be asked to endorse changes to Manual 14B: PJM Region Transmission Planning Process implementing PJM’s new capacity import limits.

Reason for Change: Stakeholders approved the limits in November out of concerns that PJM might lack sufficient transmission to accommodate its growing volume of capacity imports. Cleared imports grew from about 3,000 MW to more than 4,500 MW from 2009-2012 before more than doubling to nearly 7,500 MW this year.

Impact: The revised methodology will limit external generation resources in next year’s base capacity auction to 6,200 MW — a 17% drop from the volume of imports that cleared in the May 2013 auction, while also setting five import zones with their own limits. (See Members OK Capacity Import Limit; Prices May Rise.)

3. PROPOSED DEMAND RESPONSE PRODUCT SUBSTITUTION CLARIFICATION (9:25-9:45)

The committee will be asked to endorse changes to Manual 18: PJM Capacity Market to clarify Tariff provisions that allow substitutions of demand response resources.

The change would allow curtailment service providers to substitute a non-performing DR registration with one or more other DR registrations in the same geographic area and with the same lead time.

Providers may use Limited DR to replace Annual DR but the substitution will not count against Limited’s 10 dispatch-per-year cap. Annual DR has no limits on the number of dispatches.

4. QTU DEFICIENCY CHARGE AND CREDIT RATE (9:45-10:00)

Transmission developer H-P Energy Resources LLC will ask members to consider reducing what the company says are excessive credit requirements for Qualifying Transmission Upgrade (QTU) projects.

QTUs are small transmission projects — typically less than $10 million — that can be offered into the capacity market to relieve transmission constraints in Locational Deliverability Areas (LDAs).

The company told the MRC last month that the current rules require credit postings that can be multiples of the construction cost, creating a barrier to entry that artificially raises prices in LDAs.

The MRC will vote on a proposed problem statement and issue charge to consider changes in the requirements.

January 28, 2014

Federal Briefs

Wind power output can be adjusted to support power system reliability, instead of the rest of the system having to adjust to wind, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory study concluded. The study developed designs for new ancillary services and tested the use of active power control at the National Wind Technology Center to evaluate the impacts on turbine performance and structure. Because it may cost wind projects money to provide the service, there must be an economic incentive for it, NREL said.

More: NREL

Report Questions CCS, EPA

A report by 100 clean-energy executives and energy industry experts may lend support to opponents of the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed greenhouse gas regulations, which would require carbon capture and sequestration for new coal-fired plants. The report said the administration should “not rely on unproven or commercially unavailable technologies” including CCS.

The Environmental Protection Agency has defended its CCS requirement, citing a Southern Co. project in Mississippi expected to come online this year as evidence that the technology is proven. Opponents in Congress and elsewhere insist CCS is not proven and that where it is deployed it has government funding, which they say invalidates its use for standard-setting.

Separately, in action that EPA-rule opponents could use as they undertake challenges, the agency’s Science Advisory Board said it would not review the science supporting the rule, but expressed a “strong view” that sequestration may merit scientific review in the future.

More: National Journal; Winston & Strawn

Groups Press for Ozone Rule

Environmental groups asked a federal court to make the Environmental Protection Agency propose overdue standards for ozone. If the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California grants the request, it would set a December 2014 deadline for a proposal and October 2015 for a final rule. EPA’s preliminary rule in 2010 was never finalized.

More: Washington Examiner

Eastern States Seek Air Relief

On the eve of a Supreme Court argument on the Environmental Protection Agency’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, Democratic governors of nine Eastern states were to ask EPA Dec. 9 to impose controls on Midwestern coal plants that they say damage air quality in their states. Even if CSAPR were upheld despite coal states and industry opposition, the Eastern states’ petition would mean additional controls on Midwest emitters if EPA granted it.

More: The New York Times

January 28, 2014

Pepco CEO to Retire

Pepco Holdings Inc. Chairman and CEO Joseph Rigby announced yesterday he will step down as chief executive this year after a turbulent tenure marked by criticism over the company’s reliability.

Frank Heintz, lead independent director of the Pepco board, said the company has hired executive search firm Russell Reynolds Associates and expects to name a new CEO by the end of the third quarter of 2014. Rigby, 57, will remain chairman of the board until the company’s 2015 shareholders meeting.

“The board has been focused on senior executive succession for several years,” Heintz said in a statement.

Pepco delivers electricity and natural gas to about 2 million customers in Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland and New Jersey.

The company came under blistering criticism after widespread outages in the Washington region in 2010 and a Washington Post analysis found that the company’s customers suffered longer and more frequent outages than their counterparts in other major cities. One 2009 survey found the company’s customers experienced 70% more outages than customers of large urban utilities and the lights stayed out more than twice as long.

It was called the “most hated company in America” in 2011, based on the American Consumer Satisfaction Index.

Customer outrage led the Maryland legislature to order the Public Service Commission to hold electric providers accountable for service quality.

Rigby became chairman and CEO in 2009. He told the Post in an interview yesterday, “A lot of that criticism was, frankly, deserved.”

“This company needed to recognize that we had a hell of a lot of work to do to improve the day-to-day reliability,” he said.

Pepco doubled its budget for construction and infrastructure improvement between 2009 and 2012 and plans to spend $5.8 billion on infrastructure through 2018.

Rigby began his career at Atlantic City Electric, which Pepco acquired along with Delmarva Power, in 2002. He told the Post that although the company has boosted its reputation with customers and regulators, the perception of improvements is “somewhat tenuous.”

“That’s just a realistic view of the situation we’ve been in,” he said.

January 28, 2014

FirstEnergy’s History

FirstEnergy Corp. formed through merger of Ohio Edison Co. and Centerior Energy Corp.

Holding company for Ohio Edison (and subsidiary Pennsylvania Power Co.), The Cleveland Electric Illuminating Co., The Toledo Edison Co.
11th largest investor-owned electric system in the U.S.: annual electric sales of 64 billion kilowatt-hours; total assets nearly $20 billion; 10,000 employees; 2.2 million customers; 13,200 square miles of northern and central Ohio and western Pennsylvania; 12,000 MW generating capacity.

2001:

FirstEnergy merges with GPU Inc.

Nearly doubled revenue (more than $12 billion) and customers served (4.3 million).
GPU acquisition adds 2.1 million customers in a 24,000 square-mile service area in Pennsylvania and New Jersey (Metropolitan Edison Co.; Pennsylvania Electric Co., Jersey Central Power & Light Co.)

2011:

FirstEnergy merges with Allegheny Energy (1.6 million customers in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland and Virginia).

More than doubled supercritical coal capacity “and provided opportunities for the company to grow and expand into new markets with a stronger, more focused competitive operation.”

January 28, 2014

Company Briefs

Public Service Enterprise Group and the National Football League have installed and tested systems to make sure they avoid power-system failures at the Feb. 2 Super Bowl at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. A blackout at the New Orleans Superdome interrupted last year’s Super Bowl for 34 minutes, an embarrassment for the city and Entergy, the host utility.

That failure, and power losses at other sporting events, put enormous pressure on PSEG and the NFL, particularly because this is the first Super Bowl in a cold-weather-state open stadium. At MetLife, “There are redundancies to our redundancies,” an NFL spokesman said. PSEG says the event will use up to 20 MW.

More: Bloomberg Businessweek

Constellation: #3 in Solar

Constellation said it has more than 164 MW of solar generation in operation or under construction in 10 states and the District of Columbia, making it the third-largest commercial solar developer in the U.S. The company added 38 MW in 2013 at sites in Maryland, Washington, D.C., Arizona, California and New York.

More: Constellation

PPL Has New VP Position

Stephanie Raymond is PPL Electric Utilities’ new vice president for transmission and substations, a new officer-level position that the company said “reflects the importance to our customers — and to the reliability of our electric system — of our transmission and substation network.” Raymond joined PPL in 2011 and has led the transmission and substation organization since 2012.

More: The Morning Call

UGI Names Platt Treasurer

UGI Corp. named Daniel Platt treasurer. Platt previously was treasurer of Sunoco Inc. and Sunoco Logistics Partners LLC and held treasury positions at Technitrol, Inc. (now Pulse Electronics), EB Games (now Game Stop), Aetna U.S. Healthcare and Delaware Valley Financial Services.

More: UGI

January 28, 2014

State Briefs

Bill Requires PSC Members to Disclose Finances

A bill requiring members of the Public Service Commission to file financial disclosure statements for public view went to the governor’s office for signature after the House of Representatives approved it last week. The Senate approved it in May.

More: NewsDaily

KENTUCKY

Plants to Reopen: Big Rivers

Big Rivers' D.B. Wilson Station (Source: Big Rivers) — Big Rivers’ D.B. Wilson Station (Source: Big Rivers)

Big Rivers Electric says its closing of two coal-fired plants as a result of the loss of 850 MW of load from two Century Aluminum smelters will be temporary. The cooperative will close the 417 MW Wilson plant in February and the 443 MW Coleman plant by late June.

A spokesman said the cooperative has proposed deals with other customers to replace the smelters’ load but can’t say when the plants might reopen. Although Century said it ended its contract with Big Rivers to find better rates, Big Rivers notes that its average industrial rate is 4.6 cents/kWh, compared with a national average of 6.8 cents.

More: Reuters

MARYLAND

Lawmakers Say Potential NOx Law Will Hurt AES Plant

State lawmakers from the district where AES’ Warrior Run coal-fired plant is located are trying to head off what they say is draft legislation that would require the 205-MW plant to install nitrogen oxide controls. “The folks at AES said it would be hard on them. It would make it hard for them to stay in business,” one of the legislators said. Their efforts are directed at legislation they say has been drafted by the state Department of the Environment that would “force all carbon-based power plants across Maryland to further reduce nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide.” According to the group of four lawmakers, the law would make AES cut its already-low emissions by 83%. They want it to be killed or to exempt Warrior Run.

More: Cumberland Times-News

NRG to Shut 1,200 MW of Coal Generation in 2017

NRG Energy said it told PJM that it wants to retire 1,200 MW of coal-fired generation, five units at two plants in Prince George’s and Montgomery counties, in 2017. The company attributed its decision to low gas prices and the possibility of stronger environmental controls at the units. Gas- and oil-fired units at the plants would continue to run.

More: The Baltimore Sun

NEW JERSEY

Sierra Seeks Efficiency Goals

The Sierra Club asked the Board of Public Utilities to adopt an energy efficiency portfolio standard that would require annual reductions of 1.5% in electricity use and 1% in natural gas use. “The status quo is untenable,” the club’s petition to the BPU says. According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, New Jersey used to be an efficiency leader but its energy savings averaged under 0.5% between 2001 and 2011, far less than some other states in the region. The Sierra Club says utility energy efficiency programs have fallen to $35 million in fiscal year 2014 from $124 million in 2010.

More: NJ Spotlight

NORTH CAROLINA

Duke Seeks Net-Meter Cuts

Duke Energy plans to ask the Utilities Commission to reduce the amount it has to pay homeowners for the solar power they produce. Duke’s more than 1,300 solar installations, totaling 11.5 MW, now get Duke’s full retail price of 11 cents/kWh. Duke’s 11-cent price covers generating stations and fuel, CEO Lynn Good said. But “effectively what the solar panel is replacing is the fuel. It’s not replacing the grid.”

More: Charlotte Observer

Rep. to Talk Wind With DOD

Rep. Walter Jones (R) has asked to meet with a Defense Department official about the proposed Mill Pond wind power project, which would consist of about 40 turbines near Newport. Jones identified concerns about radar interference and obstruction of military flight paths associated with Marine Corps stations Cherry Point and New River.

More: The Daily News

More Wind for Catawba

Another wind farm could be added to Catawba County, where eight such facilities have already sprouted and more are on the horizon. Development in the county mirrors activity in other parts of the state, where the Utilities Commission is entertaining numerous applications.

More: Hickory Daily Record

OHIO

Perry Tritium Leak Repaired

FirstEnergy repaired a reactor coolant leak at its Perry nuclear plant that deposited tritium in groundwater near the plant. The leak, discovered by cameras that monitor a steam tunnel, was reported to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

More: The Plain Dealer

Anti-Renewables Bill Gets Hearing as Debate Resumes

Wind power opponents spoke out at the year’s first legislative hearing on SB 34, a measure that would eliminate the state’s requirement that electricity companies source 25% of their supply from alternative energy by 2025.

More: Columbus Business First; Ohio Legislative Service Commission

Tesla Installs Charging Stations along Turnpike

Tesla Supercharger Station (Source: Tesla)

Tesla drivers now will be able to charge their cars in Ohio for free and shop or have dinner as they do it. Tesla has installed two of its supercharger facilities in towns near the Ohio Turnpike: one in Maumee, near Toledo, and one in Macedonia, near Cleveland. The new stations enable Tesla owners to drive across the country, charging quickly for free on the way, the company says. Macedonia’s mayor is excited, seeing a boost to local businesses from drivers as their cars charge up.

More: Akron Beacon Journal

PENNSYLVANIA

Mixed Views on Corbett Plan

Gov. Tom Corbett’s new “Energy=Jobs” plan, which the governor said takes an all-of-the-above approach to energy development, met mixed reviews. The plan touts free markets for customers to choose their energy sources, promotion of the state’s diverse energy portfolio, pushing industry to use state-produced energy, protecting the environment, and more.

John Quigley, a former Department of Conservation and Natural Resources secretary, criticized Corbett’s plan for trying “to appease everybody.” He wants a policy that builds renewables with gas-fired power plants, fueled by in-state gas, backing them up.

The Pennsylvania Coal Alliance’s John Pippy liked Corbett’s plan, which he said “acknowledges the direct link between Pennsylvania energy and economic opportunity.”

More: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Comcast Entering Power Biz?

Cable and internet giant Comcast may soon have a “quadruple play” offering for customers in the state, says Public Utility Commission Chairman Robert Powelson, which would give Pennsylvania a boost in the quest to ramp up competition. The state already is ahead of most others in the rate of customer shopping, but Powelson said it wants to challenge Texas, the leader by far. According to Powelson, Comcast will be teaming with a retail energy provider to add electricity to its cable, internet and telephone service offerings. The company also offers some home energy-control services.

More: Greentech Media

Sewage Plant Begins Burning Methane

GE Jenbacher 420 Biogas Engine (Source: GE)

Philadelphia’s Northeast sewage treatment plant is burning methane to produce heat and power instead of burning it off as in the past, following completion of a $47.5 million project. Ameresco partnered with the city to build the cogeneration facilities. Bank of America owns it, leasing it to the city for 16 years with an early buyout option. The project qualifies for an investment tax credit of about $14 million and a $3.9 million state energy efficiency rebate.

More: The Philadelphia Inquirer

PennFuture Launches Clean Energy Campaign

The PennFuture Energy Center launched the Clean Energy Wins campaign, with a website to educate citizens and political candidates about choices the state can make. The organization is taking a survey of clean energy businesses and stakeholders and collecting data to develop a clean energy “roadmap” report that it plans to release in March.

More: The Patriot-News

Turbine Collapse Probe May Take Months

NextEra Energy Resources says it might take months to determine why a turbine at the Mill Run Wind Energy Center collapsed Jan. 16. The turbine was one of 10 that started operating in 2001.

More: The Tribune-Democrat

PUC OKs PPL Line Upgrade

PPL Electric Utilities’ plan to upgrade a 69-kV line in the Pocono plateau won Public Utility Commission approval. The $33 million project involves a 24-mile line that will become 138 kV. The plan drew no local opposition.

More: Pocono Record

January 28, 2014

PJM Updating eSuite Apps

PJM is making its eSuite tools more functional and more compatible with current web browsers.

PJM’s Gautam Punjabi told the Members Committee webinar yesterday that legacy applications such as eCredit, eMKT, eData and eDART will support Internet Explorer 9, while refreshed applications such as Gas Pipeline, InSchedule, Bulletin Board, and Data Miner will work with IE 9 and the latest offerings from Firefox, Chrome and Safari. These tools will no longer support Internet Explorer 7.

In addition, PowerMeter and ExSchedule will be renamed eMTR and EES, respectively, and updated to improve security and create consistency with other refreshed apps on the PJM website. The changes above are expected to be completed by March 31.

Account Manager and eMKT will be refreshed later this year, with eData and OASIS updates planned for 2015.

January 28, 2014

FERC Lifts Price Cap as Cold Grips PJM

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted PJM’s request to lift the $1,000 offer cap as the RTO entered a second consecutive week of frigid temperatures that have strained generators and pushed natural gas prices to new records.

FERC’s order came as PJM issued alerts yesterday warning that resources would be increasingly strained Tuesday and Wednesday. PJM and state regulators also appealed to the public to reduce power use, particularly during today’s evening peak.

Low temperatures ending Jan. 28, 2014 (Source: NOAA)

Load is projected to approach 140,000 MW tonight, just short of the 141,500 MW winter peak record set Jan. 7.

PJM requested a waiver to lift the cap last week after natural gas prices jumped to triple digits as heating and electrical demand for the fuel surged.

FERC’s order (ER14-1144) effectively lifts the cap on offers beginning Jan. 24 by allowing generators to seek make-whole payments for the difference between their costs and the clearing price.

The commission has not yet ruled on PJM’s separate request to allow generators to offer above the cap for future trading days through March 31, 2014 (ER14-1145). PJM asked FERC to rule by Feb. 10.

Spot prices at Transco Z-5 and Transco Z-6 (non-NY) averaged over $120/mmBtu on Jan. 21 and 22, with prices as high as $140/mmBtu. “These gas prices are record-setting for the PJM Region (if not for the nation), shattering even the records set just earlier this month during the `polar vortex’ extreme cold weather event,” PJM said.

PJM said simple-cycle combustion turbines buying gas at current prices would have marginal costs of about $1,200/MWh. On January 21, PJM said, about 5,000 MWs of generation made day-ahead offers of $999/MWh, indicating their costs were above $1,000. About 4,000 MWs were ordered to operate.

In granting PJM’s waiver request, the commission noted that the Market Monitor reviews all cost-based offers to ensure they are legitimate. The commission ordered the Monitor to submit a report within 30 days of the expiration of the waiver on how much energy was accepted over the bid cap, the cost of that energy and any unverifiable bids that were rejected.

The RTO said it will ask stakeholders to consider changes to the Operating Agreement as a long-term fix for what it called the “unprecedented conflict” between the $1,000 offer cap and the generation must-offer requirement.

“The remarkable conditions present in the `polar vortex’ event less than two weeks ago gave the first clear indication that actual fuel costs could collide with the offer cap, but before PJM could take action to address that concern, this week saw an even greater leap in fuel prices that made this conflict concrete,” PJM said in its filing.

PJM did not ask FERC for relief for generators whose costs may have exceeded the cap before Jan. 24 but said it may make a supplemental filing to seek make-whole payments later.

In a letter to FERC in support of PJM’s request, Calpine Corp. CEO Thad Hill stated, in all capitals: “The stability of the power markets in the PJM region are dependent on the commission’s granting of PJM’s waiver today.”

The waivers will not affect demand response, which is limited to $1,800 ($1,000 plus two times the penalty factor). PJM called on DR several times last week to meet loads as arctic cold followed snow.

PJM’s Chris Pilong told members in a briefing yesterday that unplanned outages from last week’s arctic blast occurred most frequently in the eastern portion of PJM, unlike earlier this month, when outages were more evenly spread across the RTO.

Commuters brave winds outside Union Station, Washington, D.C., yesterday.

The cold is expected to continue throughout the PJM footprint most of this week.

PJM yesterday issued three alerts for Tuesday: a Voltage Reduction Alert, reporting that estimated operating reserves are less than the synchronized reserve requirement; a Primary Reserve Alert, warning that estimated primary reserves are only 1,000 MWs, half the 2,000 MW objective; and a Maximum Emergency Generation Alert, calling Maximum Emergency Generation into operating capacity.

PJM also issued a Cold Weather Alert for Wednesday.

Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio are expecting lows at or below zero through Wednesday. Below zero lows are also forecast for Chicago.

Lows in Washington, D.C. will be in the teens most of the week.