WASHINGTON, D.C. ― Karen Harbert, CEO of the American Gas Association, was the first to speak at the U.S. Energy Association’s 21st Annual State of the Energy Industry Forum and set a jubilant tone for the fossil fuel leaders at the Jan. 23 event at the National Press Club.
“We’re the cool kids now,” Harbert said. “We have to go first.”
An ongoing cold snap in the Midwest and East Coast has meant record use of natural gas, she said.
“We are the biggest part of the power generation fleet right now. We’re over 40%, and that’s going to continue to grow with the onset of data centers, advanced manufacturing and strategic industries. So, gas is back. … We’re popular, we’re affordable, we’re efficient and we’re clean.”
Coming three days after President Donald Trump began his second term with a flurry of executive orders promoting a major increase in U.S. fossil fuel production, the event reflected the quickly shifting landscape of national energy policy and the resulting shift in industry priorities and narratives. (See What is and isn’t in Trump’s National Energy Emergency Order.)
All-of-the-above strategies for meeting the exponential demand growth from artificial intelligence and megawatt-guzzling hyperscale data centers were a key theme at the day-long event, as was the desire for “durable,” bipartisan legislation to streamline and accelerate permitting.
No one mentioned climate change, or even Biden’s signature climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, at least not by name.
Like Harbert, the CEOs of all the major fossil fuel trade associations exuberantly staked out their claims as preferred providers of the reliable, affordable, “clean” (or at least “cleaner”) power that data centers and U.S. consumers need. Leaders of renewable energy groups ― solar, hydropower and nuclear ― argued for their essential role in the diverse, carbon-free energy mix the high-tech hyperscalers want.
Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, began his pitch by noting that no one on the forum’s first panel had mentioned the words “energy transition.”
“We’re at a moment today where we’re transitioning from the energy transition to energy reality, and energy reality is that all of us are going to be using a heck of a lot more energy in the future, particularly in the developing world,” Sommers said.
The U.S. is best positioned to meet that global demand because of its “strong regulatory structure,” he said. “We produce oil and gas cleaner than any other country in the world.”
Michelle Bloodworth, CEO of America’s Power, the coal industry’s trade association, talked up the value of coal’s ability to deliver power in extreme weather events “because it has 90 days of onsite fuel. It’s hard to beat this onsite fuel when it’s really, really cold.”
But even Bloodworth said support for coal “doesn’t mean that we don’t support wind and solar. Again, we need them all. We need to keep all the existing resources that we have until all this new generation” comes online.
Renewables Retrench
Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, led the retrenchment of renewables, dissociating his organization from former President Joe Biden’s goal of a 100% decarbonized grid by 2035. It was, he said, “a narrative that was not our own.” He and others pointed to a combination of natural gas and renewables as a likely and pragmatic way forward.
“The notion that molecules and electrons actually have political affiliation” needs to be set aside, Grumet said. The challenge and opportunity before the industry is to “show what it’s going to take to meet this demand in the time frame we need it.”
“Every technology has strengths and weaknesses,” Grumet said. “The ability to build renewables fast is one of those strengths; intermittency is one of those weaknesses, and that’s why we have to be combined … to come up with a rational policy.”
Abigail Ross Hopper, CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association, said she would not support a 100% solar-powered electric system primarily because the U.S. should not be dependent on any one source of power.
Like Grumet, she talked about the speed and scalability of installation that solar brings to the table, but also the reliability benefits of distributed as opposed to centralized generation.
Distributed “makes a ton of sense” for addressing congestion on the grid, Hopper said. “Adding solar plus storage, other kinds of storage … that gives the grid more resiliency; that gives so [many] different ways of getting around outages. That allows consumers, if you have [solar] at your home, to be more secure.”
Rich Powell, CEO of the Clean Energy Buyers Association, stressed the role that data centers and other large energy consumers in his organization now play in the energy landscape, with their commitments to carbon emissions-free energy.
CEBA’s definition of emissions-free covers a broad range of technologies, from wind and solar to carbon capture and sequestration, making the group’s collective economic impact potentially significant, Powell said.
CEBA’s 400 members represent about $22 billion in market capitalization and 10% of all U.S. energy demand, providing significant demand and market signals, he said. An upcoming CEBA report will “sum up all the remaining demand signals for carbon emissions-free electricity in the United States alone, as part of an attempt to help grid planners who are thinking about new transmission that would be required to move new electrons to sources,” he said.
Transmission expansion and flexibility will be essential, said Arshad Mansoor, CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute.
“The changes we have seen in 12 months, we have not seen for the last 100 years,” Mansoor said, calling the speed of demand growth “unprecedented.” Borrowing Trump’s rallying cry, he said, the industry’s response must be to “build, baby, build,” but to do so in a smart way.
“There is 15 to 20% of [grid] capacity that is there today that can be unleashed if we can find some [way] for resources like data centers to back up the grid for 1% of the time,” Mansoor said. “Fifteen to 20% of the grid is supporting electric demand for 87 hours in a year; so, we see flexibility as a huge need.”
Fixing NEPA and ‘Overreaching’ EPA rules
Building on the impetus of Trump’s executive orders, both fossil fuel and renewable energy leaders continue to call on Congress for “durable” permitting reform, though their legislative priorities vary.
Dena Wiggins, CEO of the Natural Gas Supply Association, said, “fixing NEPA has got to be Job 1.” What that means in her view is that environmental reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act should be “procedural … not outcome-determinative.” The law should be interpreted as not requiring “an agency to take a particular action as a result of [its] analysis,” she said.
Fred Hutchison, CEO of LNG Allies, wants to rein in NEPA-related litigation. “We have to stop the ability of any litigant who wants to attack a licensed project,” Hutchinson said. “Whether it’s a pipeline, whether it’s an LNG facility, when you’ve gotten your licenses and a contract, all of the appeals are settled.”
Such reforms must be “legally durable,” so courts cannot put a hold on a licensed project that is under construction, he said.
For Maria Korsnick, CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute, the priority is preparing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the next generation of reactors and cutting permitting times from five or more years to 18 to 20 months.
“What [the NRC is] really comfortable with are these large reactors; they understand the regulation around them,” Korsnick said. “But the new [reactors] that are coming … they’re going to come in all shapes and sizes and run in different ways.
“So, we want them to get better at saying, ‘I understand this design; let me target the regulation just to this design.’ … Especially if it’s a small modular reactor, even a smaller micro reactor, we want them to sort of take a fresh look.”
After permitting reform, the fossil fuel industry will continue to push for regulatory repeals and rollbacks that Trump has called for in his executive order on Unleashing American Energy.
Bloodworth specifically called for action on “overreaching EPA regulations,” including the rules on power plant emissions, mercury emissions and the “Good Neighbor rule” requiring states to submit plans for limiting interstate emissions.
Repeatedly raising concerns about reliability disruptions and price increases, Bloodworth said, “The EPA should immediately stop implementing those rules. … They need to look at different interpretations of those rules” and replace them with “sensible environmental policies.”
Rolling back regulations, however carefully targeted, can’t ensure community buy-in or prevent opposition at the local level, which often presents some of the toughest obstacles to getting projects approved and built. Hopper pointed to county-level moratoria and bans on new solar projects as an example of the need to ensure NEPA reform includes “stakeholder engagement and building an understanding of the assets and the benefits that are coming to communities.”
As the number of new projects waiting for permits and interconnection continues to grow, “we can’t just, like, shove more stuff through the system,” she said.
IRA Tax Credits
While the IRA’s clean energy tax credits were not specifically targeted in Trump’s executive order on energy, they are definitely in congressional crosshairs as Republican lawmakers start looking for funding cuts to offset extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
The House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee recently circulated a 50-page list of potential funding cuts and savings, with a repeal of “green energy tax credits” the first of dozens of proposed changes to tax regulations. Such IRA rollbacks could provide an estimated $796 billion in savings over 10 years, according to the list.
The list also proposes cuts to the 45Q, 45U and 45Z tax credits for, respectively, carbon capture, nuclear and tech-neutral clean technology. Without providing detail, the list says the cuts would “reduce government intervention in the energy industry that props up the green energy sector and distorts market competition” and save $404.7 billion over 10 years.
But congressional Republicans may face challenges here as the leaders of industry trade groups at the USEA forum said they will work to protect tax credits that benefit their members.
In addition to Bloodworth’s support for 45Q, Pat Vincent-Collawn, interim CEO of the Edison Electric Institute, said “energy tax credits are driving innovation, creating good American jobs and economic opportunity, and helping electric companies [meet] the rapidly growing demand for electricity while keeping customer bills as low as possible. It is important that lawmakers protect these tax credits.”
Maintaining tax credits that support clean tech supply chains was another point of agreement. Hopper pointed to the massive buildout of solar manufacturing in the U.S. since passage of the IRA. “We have gone from very little solar manufacturing capacity in the United States to, by the end of this year, being able to produce enough solar modules to provide for our entire domestic need.”
CEBA’s Powell made a direct connection between maintaining the tax credits and another of Trump’s top priorities, keeping electric bills low. “The marginal cost of new generation sets the price for everything,” he said. “If you effectively increase the price of that new generation by removing the incentives currently available to it, we’re going to see all electricity prices rise.”