The Clean Energy States Alliance released a report July 2 highlighting how states are tackling the rise in electricity demand, which varies based on factors such as the scale of demand growth they face and their geography.
About 80% of national data center load in 2023 was in 15 states, but the growth is concentrated in Virginia, with the largest collection of data centers in the world that account for a quarter of statewide electricity consumption. Other states expecting to see significant demand growth from data centers in the coming years are Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio and the Carolinas.
Demand from manufacturing is expected to rise in the Midwest (both PJM and MISO), Southeast and West, while electrification is going to drive demand growth in California, New York and New England.
“A big challenge facing states is uncertainty around load forecast projections,” the report said. “The future of artificial intelligence and cryptomining, changes in state policy around electrification and clean energy, and the impact of federal policies on domestic industry and manufacturing all contribute to uncertainty. Additionally, big data centers often scout multiple potential locations for potential development, thereby making it unclear to state regulators and utility planners if and where a particular data center will ultimately be built.”
Most states, especially those with strong climate goals, continue to expand renewable energy, efficiency and demand response, but those facing near-term growth are backing new natural gas capacity and delaying the retirements of older fossil plants. Many states are exploring nuclear generation, with utilities including it in their long-term plans.
Concerns about rising costs from higher demand have led legislatures, regulators and utilities to develop large-load tariffs, promote data center efficiency and limit cost shifts among different customer classes.
The different drivers of load growth have their own demand profiles, which affects how they impact the grid and how state regulators and others need to address them.
Data centers generally are less flexible than most demand, but tech firms can shift computing demand around to different locations, and cryptomining facilities are price sensitive. But their usage is unpredictable, leading to forecasting challenges.
Industrial load tends to be higher during the workday, but process heat electrification and industrial-scale storage could help some facilities become more flexible.
Electrification load will tend to peak in the morning before people go to work and then again in the late afternoon/evening. In northern climates, such as New York and New England, electrification will shift the grid to having its overall peak in the winter.
“Transportation electrification’s load shape will also vary to some degree,” the report said. “Residential or commercial overnight charging will peak at night, while public fast EV chargers will likely peak during the day.”
An analysis from RMI estimates that to meet the growing demand, about 94 GW of new natural gas capacity is being planned to come online by 2035, 34 GW more than had been planned at the end of 2023. Renewables also are expected to grow, but the utility sector now plans to build 40 GW more natural gas than wind and solar by 2035, when just a couple years ago the planned new capacity for both was even.
Dominion Energy plans to build 5.9 GW of new gas by the end of the 2030s; Duke Energy has been approved to add 3.6 GW; and Southern Co.’s Georgia Power won approval for another 1.4 GW of gas this decade. Lawmakers in Maryland passed legislation to fast track a new gas plant, and those in Texas identified 17 gas-fired projects for state-backed loans.
About 9,100 MW of older capacity is expected to see its life extended because of demand growth, which includes two coal plants in West Virginia benefiting from new transmission planned to serve data centers in Virginia.
“Even New York, a state deeply committed to climate action, delayed the retirement of gas peaker plants in late 2023 due to reliability concerns and growing demand,” the report said.
The federal government also has started to issue orders keeping coal plants open, which was anticipated by some in the industry: Duke Energy said it would revisit its plans to retire its coal plants just days after President Donald Trump won the 2024 election.
Using fossil plants to deal with the higher load clashes with climate policies in some states, such as Virginia and North Carolina, the report noted.