December 22, 2024

MISO Switches to In-house Load Forecasting to Gauge Soaring Demand

Facing proliferating load additions, MISO announced it has begun developing in-house long-term load forecasts after years of relying on outside help to form load outlooks.   

Staff made the announcement at a Dec. 19 workshop, where they shared findings from MISO’s inaugural effort to produce a 20-year forecast. MISO previously relied on a combination of a third-party consultant and Purdue University’s State Utility Forecasting Group to prepare long-term load forecasts.   

Executive Director of Market and Grid Research DL Oates said “it’s pretty clear” the load growth picture in the footprint is changing rapidly, propelled by a manufacturing revival, transportation electrification and data center growth spurred by rapid AI advances. 

MISO forecasts its 638 TWh of gross energy in 2024 could grow to anywhere between 921 TWh and 1,225 TWh in 20 years, driven by data centers, electric vehicles and a burgeoning green hydrogen industry.  

Executive Director of Transmission Planning Laura Rauch said MISO’s load growth forecasting will factor heavily into MISO’s three, 20-year futures scenarios, which are used to inform long-range transmission planning. The grid operator has committed to revising its futures throughout 2025 to account for more load and more clean energy transformation. (See MISO Pauses Long-range Tx Planning in 2025 to go Back to the Futures.)  

MISO engineer Brad Decker said MISO and the rest of the country are exiting a roughly 15-year period of stagnant, average 0% load growth. MISO now expects annual load growth of 1 to 2% through 2044.  

MISO believes load growth from electrification to be about three times higher than previously projected through long-term forecasts. Decker said the steeper growth rate over the next 20 years is due to the “gold rush” to data centers, He said MISO is gearing up for anywhere from 19 to 30 GW of new data center additions by 2040.  

Within MISO, Iowa, Minnesota and Indiana will lead in data center growth, Decker said, due to availability of land, interconnection opportunities and fiber connectivity. He also noted that electric vehicles are expected to reach cost parity with gas vehicles in the next few years. 

However, Decker said MISO won’t rule out an economic slowdown that could suppress growth. He said though he thinks much of the load growth will come to pass, there are some “cracks” forming through the U.S., with consumers and companies carrying higher debt. MISO also allowed that most growth in manufacturing and industry will take place post-2030 and is “highly contingent on continued policy support” through federal laws.  

Decker said he expects some of the mystique around load growth from data centers to evaporate over the next few years. He said pinning down load growth from electric vehicles a few years back was similarly nebulous.  

“Load has been relatively flat, but that paradigm is coming to an end,” MISO Strategic Insights Manager Dominique Davis said. She said MISO will continue researching to better understand future demands and provide “directional insights” to its members. She said MISO will incorporate the latest macroeconomic assumptions and analyses that seek to capture fast-moving industry trends.  

Davis added that MISO will look for ways to add machine learning and more automation in its forecasting process, perhaps leading to programmed data exchanges with stakeholders, load-serving entities and other third parties who help shape the forecasts. 

Davis also said the RTO has more work to do to understand to what extent distributed energy resources will offset load growth.  

MISO is taking stakeholders’ opinions on its internal and more comprehensive load forecasting through Jan. 15.  

Consumer Groups Seek Independent Oversight of Local Tx Planning

Twenty-two consumer and advocacy groups from across the U.S. filed a complaint with FERC Dec. 19 contending that the local transmission planning processes overseen by the commission demonstrate widespread inefficiencies that needlessly incur costs for electricity ratepayers.

The Industrial Energy Consumers of America (IECA), American Forest & Paper Association, R Street Institute, Public Citizen, Maryland Office of People’s Counsel, Pennsylvania Office of Consumer Advocate and other consumer groups filed the lengthy complaint against ISO/RTOs, utilities outside the organized markets and jurisdictional utilities with local planning processes.

“FERC’s stated mission is to ‘assist consumers in obtaining reliable, safe, secure and economically efficient energy services at a reasonable cost through appropriate regulatory and market means, and collaborative efforts’”, IECA President Paul Cicio said in a statement. “FERC has failed in its mission to deliver ‘just and reasonable’ transmission rates.”

He added that while the commission has required regional planning for three decades as an essential component to just and reasonable rates, it has continued to allow individual transmission owners to plan electric infrastructure critical to the nation’s economy and security based on their individual corporate interests and increasing their profits.

“Complainants demonstrate that provisions in the tariffs of the named public utilities and the RTOs/ISOs inappropriately authorize individual transmission owners to plan FERC-jurisdictional transmission facilities at 100 kV and above without regard to whether such local planning approach is the more efficient or cost-effective transmission project for the interconnected transmission grid and cost-effective for electric consumers,” the complaint said.

“Local planning, coupled with the absence of an independent transmission system planner, has produced inefficient planning and projects that are not cost-effective, resulting in unjust and unreasonable rates for both individual projects and cumulative regional transmission plans and portfolios,” it said.

FERC has a statutory requirement to protect consumers from excessive rates and charges, and is required to protect the public interest, as distinguished from the private interests of utilities, the complaint said.

“The commission has not fulfilled its statutory obligation to ensure just and reasonable, non-discriminatory transmission rates and practices affecting those rates because existing local planning tariffs allow individual transmission owners to plan FERC-jurisdictional transmission facilities at 100 kV and above without regard to whether it is the right project for the interconnected grid, resulting in unjust and unreasonable rates,” the complainants wrote.

FERC discussed the drawbacks to such local transmission planning processes in Order 1920 but did not change anything, saying such concerns were outside the scope of the proceeding that produced the transmission planning rule, they contended.

‘Shareholder Directives’

The complaint notes that PJM’s territory has 1,584 locally planned transmission projects valued at $18.1 billion with expected in service dates from Jan. 1, 2024, until Dec. 31, 2028.

“Those projects, like locally planned projects across the country, receive only a superficial, if any, independent review and thus there is no assurance that they represent efficient or cost-effective projects for consumers,” the filing said. “Importantly, this complaint does not challenge the rates for any specific locally planned project as unjust and unreasonable; instead, this complaint alleges that the cumulative effect of tariff provisions allowing local planning of transmission projects 100 kV and above results in unjust and unreasonable transmission rates.”

According to the complaint, the overbuilding is worse for smaller transmission lines from 100 kV to 230 kV, but it argues that the entire grid is being overbuilt. It contends that the “massive spike in consumer expenditures for locally planned transmission” is the result of incumbent utilities responding to “shareholder directives.”

“The investor-owned utilities do not hide this fact, repeatedly telling Wall Street analysts the amount of commission-jurisdictional capital expenditure (CapEx) expected over the coming years in order to bolster stock prices,” the complaint said. “The investor-owned utilities could only know the level of FERC-jurisdictional transmission CapEx if they also know that the jurisdictional transmission planned will inure to their rate base because they will not be subject to any competition to garner those projects, and thus exists the incentive for self-planned transmission.”

The complaint proposes to fix the status quo with a requirement that all regional planning be conducted through an “independent transmission planner” to ensure the best project for consumers and the interconnected grid is developed in the regional plan, Cicio said.

Oklahoma Gov. Stitt Threatens to ‘Unplug’ from SPP

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt’s (R) recent threat during a television interview to “unplug” from SPP may sound like political rhetoric designed to curry favor with his constituents, but the Arkansas-based grid operator is taking the statement seriously. 

Calling himself the “most pro-oil and gas governor in the country,” Stitt told Oklahoma City political analyst Scott Mitchell during his local “Hot Seat” program that the “feds coming in demanding eminent domain” to build transmission lines is why he wants to “pull that back from the feds, pull back from SPP.” 

“I just don’t want to have to play ‘Mother, may I’ to the Southwest Power Pool … before I add energy to my own grid,” Stitt said. “That’s where I have a problem with the Southwest Power Pool. So, I’m looking at unplugging from them.” 

Stitt was apparently conflating the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors (NIETCs) with SPP’s transmission work. One of those corridors, the 645-mile Delta-Plains corridor from Little Rock, Ark., through Oklahoma, drew strong political and public opposition in the state over eminent domain concerns. 

“I won’t let anyone steamroll Oklahomans or their private property rights,” Stitt posted on X. “The feds don’t get to just come here and claim eminent domain for a green energy project that nobody wants.” 

When the corridor was not included among the three corridors that advanced to the next phase, Stitt returned to X. “Good riddance. Another win for Oklahoma!” he crowed. (See DOE Cuts NIETC List from 10 to 3 High-priority Transmission Corridors.)

Still, his comments drew the attention of SPP. Staff have been working with Stitt ever since, providing a statement to Oklahoma media and clarifying that they have nothing to do with the NIETC process. They have also been working to answer a list of questions the governor has submitted to the RTO. 

“We’re working to provide him the information he’s seeking, and we hope to provide that to him within the next several weeks,” COO Lanny Nickell, SPP’s newly minted CEO-in-waiting, told RTO Insider. (See related story, SPP Names COO Nickell to Replace Sugg as CEO.) 

So, can Stitt unplug his grid from SPP? It would likely require legislation directing electric utilities to withdraw from the RTO. But that’s easier said than done. 

First, there’s the matter of the substantial termination fees the state’s utilities would have to pay to leave SPP’s membership. Oklahoma would then have to figure out the construct under which to operate its own market and how to perform the services SPP currently provides. That would include reliability coordination, transmission planning and dispatch, crafting market rules and providing open access. 

While incurring significant costs standing up a replacement to SPP, Oklahoma would also lose the benefits of belonging to a RTO, where costs are socialized among its members. The grid operator’s 2021 Value of Transmission study found that the $3.4 billion of new transmission projects placed in service between 2015 and 2019 will result in more than $27.2 billion in savings and benefits over the next 40 years, a benefit-cost ratio of 5.24. 

Those numbers and other metrics are some of what SPP is providing to Stitt, Nickell said. He pointed out that every expansion of SPP’s membership has resulted from utilities, states and regulators determining that RTO membership provided significant net benefits through increased reliability, more affordable wholesale electricity and offering members’ input in developing solutions that benefit the entire footprint. 

In the meantime, SPP is continuing to talk with Stitt’s office to “strengthen our mutual understanding” of how the RTO can continue to keep the state’s lights on “affordably and reliably,” Nickell said in his statement. 

“We’ll continue to work with Gov. Stitt, as we do with all legislators and regulators across our service territory, to ensure the benefits of SPP membership continue to far outweigh the costs,” he said. 

LPO Finalizes Major Loans to Ford, Stellantis for EV Battery Plants

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office is locking in billion-dollar federal investments aimed at building out a domestic battery supply chain that could accelerate the rollout of new electric vehicle models by major automakers.

On Dec. 16, LPO announced it had finalized a $9.63 billion loan to BlueOval SK, a joint venture between Ford Motor Co. and South Korean battery maker SK On. The company is building three mammoth battery factories, two in Kentucky and one in Tennessee, which eventually will produce more than 120 GWh of batteries per year, to be used in Ford and Lincoln EV models.

The second finalized loan, announced Dec. 17 for $7.54 billion, is going to StarPlus Energy, a joint venture of Stellantis and Samsung. StarPlus is nearing completion of the first of two EV battery factories in Kokomo, Ind., with a total annual battery capacity of 67 GWh, or the equivalent of about 670,000 EVs.

BlueOval also has two of its three factories getting ready for production in 2025, one each in Kentucky and Tennessee. While the company says construction of the second Kentucky plant is “on schedule,” work on the project was put on hold in 2023 after Ford pulled back on its planned rollout of EVs because of lower-than-expected demand.

The BlueOval and StarPlus loans are, respectively, the largest and second largest that LPO has made under its Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing program, which is designed to “provide low-cost debt capital for fuel-efficient vehicle and eligible component manufacturing in the United States,” according to an LPO fact sheet.

In December 2022, LPO also closed a $2.5 billion loan to Ultium Cells, the battery joint venture of General Motors and LG Energy Solutions, again to fund battery factories in Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee.

In BlueOval’s case, the loan will help the company “do more, faster, increasing liquidity and optimizing financial flexibility,” CFO Jiem Cranney said in an email to NetZero Insider.

“We have invested more than $11 billion in the construction of three 4 million square-foot facilities, installation of equipment and strategically building our workforce,” Cranney said. “This loan, which will be repaid with interest, keeps us on pace for an on-schedule start to production and allows BlueOval SK to sustain and grow our presence in the EV battery space.”

Building out a domestic EV battery supply chain is seen as increasingly important for the U.S. to successfully compete against China, which controls 70 to 90% of different parts of global battery supply chains, according to a recent analysis from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Chinese EVs are also gaining ground in Southeast Asia and Mexico, with smaller, less expensive models, in some cases priced under $20,000.

While U.S. tariffs will keep Chinese EVs out of the domestic market at least in the near term, the loans are “essential to getting [EV manufacturers] to choose the United States of America,” LPO Director Jigar Shah told Reuters. “When you look at the competition that we have from China, it is very clear to me that they have used low-cost debt for a very long time to promote a lot of manufacturing capacity that has hollowed out many communities in Kentucky, Tennessee and other states around the country.”

US Market

A robust domestic battery supply chain is also seen as critical for raising the confidence of both automakers and consumers in a strong U.S. market for electric vehicles. Despite their large investments in battery factories, both Ford and Stellantis have been cautious, if not slow, to expand their EV offerings.

Ford continued its EV pullback in August, announcing a shift in its sales strategy to focus on the commercial vehicle market and the production of hybrid vehicles, which have seen rising sales across the auto industry. Although Ford’s Mustang Mach-E has led the U.S. market for crossover electric SUVs this year, sales of the popular model fell 10% in the third quarter, according to Ford Authority, an industry trade publication.

Tesla still leads the new EV market in the U.S., with 49.5% of sales, but Ford is second, with 6.8%, according to Cox Automotive.

Stellantis, which owns the Jeep, Chrysler and Dodge brands, only recently launched its first EV for the U.S. market, the Jeep Wagoneer S. It has also announced plans to start production in early 2025 of its new electric Dodge Charger, which the company is billing as the “the world’s first and only electric muscle car.”

Stellantis grabbed additional headlines in early December with the announcement that it is partnering with Houston-based Zeta Energy to develop lithium-sulfur batteries, which could provide greater range and faster charging times, according to the Stellantis press release.

Neither Stellantis nor StarPlus responded to NetZero Insider queries about their plans for the Kokomo factories and whether they would be used to produce lithium-sulfur batteries.

EV Chargers Plugging Along

While much uncertainty surrounds the fate of federal funding for EVs during the second Trump administration, the U.S. market continues to rack up increasing sales and steady growth.

In 2024, EVs accounted for about 8% of all new auto sales in the U.S., according to year-end figures from Cox. Fourth-quarter sales of 356,000 EVs represent an estimated increase of 12% year over year.

New EV sales for 2024 are expected to hit 1.3 million, said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, the company’s director of industry insights.

Cox is predicting that EVs will “tip over 10%” of the new car market in 2025, with “the introduction of new models, improved charging and advancements in battery technology,” Valdez Streaty said during a Dec. 17 webinar. Expanding the charging network will remain critical to overcoming consumers’ charging anxiety, which could be threatened if the funding for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program is “redirected or eliminated,” she said.

The NEVI program, funded with $5 billion from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, provides formula-based allocations, typically in the millions, to states to install direct current fast chargers every 50 miles along “fueling corridors,” which typically follow interstate and state highways. To date, 171 NEVI chargers are online at 41 stations across 12 states, according to the latest figures from the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation.

The U.S. now has more than 205,000 public chargers, so EV drivers on 60% of the country’s most heavily trafficked highways can expect to find a public charger every 50 miles, the office says.

FERC Approves NERC Assessment, Seeks Comment on IBR Standards

FERC on Dec. 19 accepted NERC’s 2024 performance assessment while ordering a compliance filing in six months to explain how it will track its improvement in key areas (RR24-4).

In a separate filing issued during its last monthly open meeting of the year, the commission also proposed approving two reliability standards on protection settings and ride-through requirements for inverter-based resources (IBRs) after a 60-day comment period (RM25-3).

NERC submitted its performance assessment in July, as required by FERC regulations before it can be recertified as the ERO. (See NERC Submits Final Performance Assessment.) It covers 2019 to 2023, a time in which NERC said it strove to become a “nimbler organization while continuing to adapt to the changing needs of the electric industry.”

During the five-year cycle, the grid and the ERO Enterprise weathered the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several major severe weather incidents, the emergence of serious cybersecurity threats to grid reliability and the ongoing shift from traditional thermal generation to renewable resources. The assessment focuses on what NERC called its accomplishments in this context, in four areas:

    • Energy: addressing challenges arising from the changing resource mix, providing sufficient energy and essential reliability services, improving system performance during extreme weather and adding transfer capability;
    • Security: addressing cyber and physical security risks;
    • Agility: becoming “nimbler” in risk identification and standards development; and
    • Sustainability: investing in automation, eliminating single points of failure, and strengthening the ERO Enterprise’s long-term stability and success.

NERC also evaluated the regional entities’ performance, finding that they “satisfied the relevant statutory and regulatory criteria for delegation of … the ERO’s authorities.” In a supplemental filing, NERC discussed its work to improve the efficiency of its compliance monitoring and enforcement program (CMEP) and data collection. The ERO told FERC it plans to “establish metrics on noncompliance processing to ensure the streamlined compliance exception process produces the intended efficiencies.”

FERC found that the performance assessment satisfied its regulations and that NERC and the REs met the commission’s requirements. However, the commission also noted that NERC’s supplemental filing said the ERO is considering developing new performance metrics associated with the REs’ processing times.

To help this process along, FERC specified that NERC should develop metrics to track three areas:

    • implementation and consistence of risk-based compliance monitoring practices;
    • timeliness of violation processing; and
    • reduction in subsequent serious risk violations stemming from similar issues as prior noncompliance.

The commission directed NERC to submit metrics for the reliability standards development program and implementation and oversight of the CMEP in a compliance filing within 180 days of its order.

IBR Standards Proposed for Adoption

FERC’s second NERC-related order concerned reliability standards PRC-024-4 (Frequency and voltage protection settings for synchronous generators, Type 1 and Type 2 wind resources, and synchronous condensers) and PRC-029-1 (Frequency and voltage ride-through requirements for IBRs).

The commission’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking also proposed to adopt a new definition of “inverter-based resource” into the ERO’s Glossary of Terms.

NERC filed the two standards and definition with the commission Nov. 4, along with three more standards related to disturbance monitoring, reporting requirements and event mitigation for IBRs. The standards address the second milestone in FERC Order 901, issued Oct. 19, 2023. Milestone 2 standards cover performance requirements and post-event performance validation for registered IBRs. FERC did not mention the other three standards in its NOPR.

In addition to proposing to adopt the two standards and definition, the commission also proposed directing NERC to file two informational filings after they go into effect. These relate to a provision in PRC-029-1 that allows exemptions to the voltage and frequency ride-through requirements for legacy IBRs — resources that are already in operation when the standard goes into effect. Entities would have 12 months after the effective date of the standard to request an exemption.

FERC said it is curious about “the volume of exemptions, the circumstances in which entities have invoked the exemption provision and ultimately … what, if any, effect the exemption provision has on the efficacy of” the standard. The filings would be due 12 and 24 months after the conclusion of the exemption request period and would provide information on the total number of:

    • IBRs and their capacity for which generator owners will be subject to compliance;
    • IBRs and their capacity for which GOs requested exemptions;
    • IBRs and their capacity for which NERC granted exemptions;
    • granted exemptions by their type (voltage or frequency) and aggregated capacity; and
    • granted exemptions by IBR type and their capacity.

FERC will accept comments on the NOPR for 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register. At the meeting, Commissioners Judy Chang and David Rosner both encouraged industry stakeholders to share their thoughts so that FERC can make an informed decision.

“We’re threading the needle here, aimed at balancing the need to mitigate risk and make sure we have accurate information [and] get this decision right,” Rosner said. “So I look forward to seeing comments there.”

NJ Legislators Back 2-year Delay on Electric Truck Mandate

A New Jersey Assembly committee Dec. 12 unanimously backed a two-year delay in the implementation of the state’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulations that would mandate escalating electric truck sales. 

The Assembly Transportation and Independent Authorities Committee voted 13-0 to advance the bill, A4967, which would require that the rules adopted by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection start “no earlier” than Jan. 1, 2027, rather than Jan. 1, 2025. Trucking executives, dealers and business groups had argued that the state has neither the demand nor the infrastructure to comply with the program. 

The bill was one of two approved the same day that highlighted the growing importance of state actions in combating climate change as the transition to the second Trump administration casts a high level of uncertainty over federal initiatives to cut carbon emissions, many of which the president-elect opposes. 

The two bills show legislators pushing in two directions on the climate change debate: While the Assembly committee voted to slow the ACT rules, which Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has aggressively promoted, the Senate Environment and Energy Committee voted 3-2 along party lines to advance S3545, the “Climate Superfund Act,” which seeks to impose a “liability on certain fossil fuel companies for certain damages caused by climate change.” 

Both bills are far from becoming law: A4967 has not moved on the Senate side, and S3545 has yet to advance in the General Assembly. The bipartisan support for delaying the ACT rules, however, suggests that bill could advance. 

Assemblyman Clinton Calabrese (D), chair of the Transportation committee and one of the bill’s sponsors, opened the hearing by reiterating his “steadfast support” for the ACT regulations. But he added that “this bill seeks to address some of the significant challenges that have arisen during this implementation period.” 

Assemblyman Christian Barranco (R) said, “Electrification of the transportation sector is not a political problem, it is an engineering dilemma. 

“We have a very, very difficult problem being able to serve this with the [electricity] generation that we have in place.” 

But environmental groups and other ACT backers said the state has already made great strides and would not have trouble meeting the program’s sales targets. They urged legislators not to slow that progress and disrupt the certainty manufacturers and fleets need to make investments. 

“Based on recent estimates, manufacturers in New Jersey have, in fact, already met their compliance for next year,” with 1,000 battery electric trucks already on the road, said Karla Sosa, New York-New Jersey project manager for the Environmental Defense Fund. “To delay ACT would be a decisive blow to New Jersey’s ability to get clean trucks that we desperately need on the road.” 

Grid, Price Concerns

New Jersey in December 2021 became the third state to adopt rules based on California’s ACT regulations, which require manufacturers of vehicles weighing more than 8,500 pounds to sell an increasing number of electric trucks after 2025. 

The New Jersey rules will require that by 2035, electric vehicles account for 55% of class 2b and 3 trucks, 75% of class 4 to 8 trucks and 40% of truck tractor sales. Vendors would have to comply with a system of credits and deficits based on the proportion of electric trucks that manufacturers sell in the state compared to the number of diesel vehicles they sell. (See NJ Adopts EV Truck Sales Mandate.) 

The committee’s vote comes after the California Air Resources Board (CARB), facing pushback from truckers, voted to adopt amendments to its ACT rules, giving truck-makers more flexibility in reaching the goals. (See Calif. Revises Clean Truck Rules to Ease Compliance.) 

Representatives of the New Jersey trucking sector ― some of whom backed the idea of electric trucks — argued at the hearing that the state is far from ready to make the major transition to electric trucks. The DEP said in October there were 143 electric class 4 to 8 trucks registered in the state, and nearly 5,000 Class 2b and 3 trucks. 

Helder Rebelo, director of fleet maintenance and safety for Newark-based Daybreak Express and president of the New Jersey Motor Truck Association (NJMTA), said the industry’s “very small profit margins” make it very difficult for trucking companies to pay for an electric truck that is about three times as expensive as a $150,000 to $180,000 diesel vehicle. 

“To afford that truck, we are just going to have to pass it on to the consumer,” he said. He added that the grid around his employer’s depot “cannot handle” the heavy charge needed to fuel an electric truck, and company discussions with Public Service Electric and Gas leave it unclear when the necessary upgrade might happen. 

The association said supporters of the bill included South Brunswick-based Hermann Services, one of the foremost electric truck adopters in the state, which has one electric Class 8 truck and 15 on order. The company believes that the state’s infrastructure should be better developed before the rules take effect, the association said. 

Because of these and other factors, demand is way below the level required in the ACT sales mandates, said Joe Cambria, owner of truck dealership Cambria Truck Center of Edison. “Customers do not want to purchase these trucks,” and under the ACT regulations, “our manufacturers will not allow us to order any diesel trucks unless we provide zero-emission credits.” 

“We are hopeful, if delayed, some of these items can be addressed” to make electric trucks more “commercially viable,” he said. 

If not, the rules could create a competitive disadvantage for New Jersey for dealers, said Laura Perrotta, president of the New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers. 

“You can go to Pennsylvania starting Jan. 1, 2025, and buy any truck you want,” she said. “In the state of New Jersey, unfortunately, the manufacturers are going to restrict allocation of diesel trucks” to those dealers that sell enough electric trucks. 

Business Uncertainty

But two EV manufacturers — Rivian Automotive and Tesla — urged the committee not to advance the bill. 

Zachary Kahn, senior policy manager with Tesla, said the company has planned for two years around the law and is ready to sell its Class 8 truck, which can do 500 miles and can be recharged in 20 to 30 minutes. 

Tom Van Heeke, senior policy adviser at Rivian, said any delay would “create regulatory uncertainty for our industry.” 

“Delaying implementation would actually make it more difficult for manufacturers to meet the requirements because it eliminates the gradual ramp up that’s built into the rule,” he said. “We’re building a business, and we’ve been counting on this regulation for several years.” 

Responsible Parties

At the Senate Environment and Energy Committee, legislators supporting the Climate Superfund Act said the evidence of the need for the bill is growing. 

The bill would require the state treasurer to compile an assessment of the damage to the state from climate change and determine the “responsible parties” for the greenhouse gas emissions. The legislation would create a DEP program to “secure compensatory payment from responsible parties” and disperse the funds in a grant program for “climate change adaption and resilience projects.” 

Sen. Bob Smith (D), the committee’s chair and one of the bill’s sponsors, listed extreme weather events, such as Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Ida. “The people who brought you these damages should be responsible for paying for it.” 

Sen. John F. McKeon (D), the other sponsor, put the cost to the state of recovering from Sandy at $7.2 billion and said the bill is “a cost recovery tool.” 

“This is about who pays for the damage that’s unequivocally directed to climate change, period,” he said. “And here in New Jersey, either the taxpayer pays or the polluter pays.” 

Alex Daniel, counsel for the New Jersey Civil Justice Institute, which represents the business sector, spoke against the bill, arguing it raised constitutional concerns. 

“The simple fact is, for the last 100 years, our national government [and] state governments have actively permitted and encouraged petroleum extraction and refining as part of a national energy policy,” he said. “That national energy policy has resulted in petroleum products being at the very core of our energy industry. 

“The risk posed by retroactive litigation [and] liability is simple: There are settled expectations that people have that the due process protects them from disproportionate liability, particularly where you have an issue like greenhouse gases that aren’t simply an American problem.” 

Ed Waters, senior director of government affairs for the Chemistry Council of New Jersey, said the bill fails to “directly address the causes of carbon emissions and consumption.” 

“It goes unfairly after the companies that were refining, but the actual emissions are generated by the use of fossil fuels,” he said. Moreover, he said, “there was no law against them refining the fuels,” and the law would punish them for something they did legally. 

Western Market Developers Compare Approaches to GHGs

On the surface, CAISO’s Extended Day-Ahead Market and SPP’s Markets+ will take similar approaches to accounting for greenhouse gas emissions — but important differences remain.

That was a key takeaway from a Dec. 16 webinar hosted by the Western Interstate Energy Board, where designers from both grid operators discussed how each market will deal with the patchwork of GHG pricing, accounting and reporting requirements across different Western states.

While California and Washington are currently the only two states with active carbon pricing policies, several others have carbon reduction goals and other climate regulations that utilities must meet.

That leaves EDAM and Markets+ with a common goal: to implement GHG tracking and reporting in a way that accounts for different approaches to reducing emissions.

CAISO’s Approach

Developing a GHG accounting mechanism for EDAM “wasn’t necessarily a new challenge” for CAISO because California has had a cap-and-trade program in place since 2014, Anja Gilbert, a lead policy developer at the ISO, said during the webinar.

But despite CAISO’s experience dealing with GHG accounting, it faces some new challenges in accounting for emissions in EDAM, particularly involving how to track emissions in states that don’t price carbon.

Key among those challenges is implementing a market mechanism that ensures a state or load-serving entity is only served by generation that meets a certain emissions threshold.

“This is really relevant for states that have climate policies not based on the price of carbon but might have reduction goals over time,” Gilbert says. “There’s a question of if that does need to be reflected in the market.”

Another challenge has to do with unspecified imports being valued at an unspecified emissions rate.

“It doesn’t provide that level of clarity in terms of what generation is really serving that load,” Gilbert said. “That high emissions rate could undermine showing progress toward an entity’s climate goals.”

In response to those challenges, CAISO has proposed to create a residual emissions rate, which would represent a dispatch-weighted average emissions rate of the market supply and allow market participants to reflect and account for the energy and associated emissions for which they’re responsible. Under this framework, leftover energy in the market would go into the residual supply and the emissions rate would be the average of the residual mix.

To respect state preferences, the market’s optimization won’t incorporate GHG costs outside of California and Washington, but CAISO’s market design does incentivize generators to make supply available to those states. For example, if a solar resource in Arizona wants to serve load in California and receives a GHG award, the generator is paid the marginal GHG price paid for by California load.

SPP’s Approach

Over the past year, SPP has been in the process of developing a design for GHG tracking and reporting, and it provided an overview of its approach, which is similar to CAISO’s.

Gentry Crowson, a lead market design engineer at SPP, said the Markets+ GHG framework rests on two “pillars” of pricing design and a tracking and reporting service.

“These two pillars are really going to enable the footprint to be respective of state programs that are in place, as well as with state GHG reduction goals that are also in place,” Crowson said.

SPP’s GHG tracking and reporting “vision” aims for comprehensive reporting through the centralized Market Emissions Tracking and Reporting (METra) application, Crowson explained. The system’s design intends to give Markets+’s load-responsible entities (LREs) the right to claim resources and energy they own or have contracted for, in addition to ensuring that the market accounts for all generation and associated emissions in one way or another.

The first step in SPP’s design approach is called the “mapping” step, where LREs’ registered resources are modeled in a commercial model and matched to a corresponding resource portfolio. In the second step, reporting entities have the option to bring in or send out other resources by submitting them into the METra portal. The third step is to establish a contract between the buyer and seller that is then reflected into LREs’ resource portfolios.

After the market runs and market operators and participants have a better understanding of the actual output, any generation that exceeds the load amount is deemed excess energy and is allocated to a residual energy report, similar to CAISO’s method.

“Once the market runs and you’re looking at a load-responsible entity’s resource portfolio, if that load-responsible entity has any excess energy, we had to come up with options to figure out how to calculate this residual energy pool as we pull together these emissions,” Crowson said.

The Markets+ GHG Task Force unanimously endorsed the tracking and reporting design in September, and the Markets+ Participants Executive Committee approved it in November.

Biden Sets New US Emissions-reduction Target of 61-66% by 2035

As he prepares to leave office, President Joe Biden has submitted a new U.S. emissions-reduction target to the U.N., committing the country to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions economywide by 61 to 66% below 2005 levels by 2035.

Knowing that President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement again, the Biden administration used the announcement of the new goal on Dec. 19 as a call to action for the states, cities and businesses that continued their efforts to reduce GHG emissions during Trump’s first term.

Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement on his first day in office in 2021. As he has throughout his four years in the White House, he linked action on climate change “to more good-paying jobs, more affordable energy, cleaner air, cleaner water [and] healthier environments for everyone.”

“It is also creating real momentum because we’re unleashing American ingenuity and innovation,” the president said in a statement. “American industry will keep inventing and keep investing. State local, and tribal governments will keep stepping up.”

White House Senior Adviser John Podesta was similarly “confident in America’s ability to rally around this new climate goal because, while the United States federal government may put climate action on the back burner, the work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States with commitment and passion and belief.”

During a media briefing on Dec. 18, Podesta recalled the surge of subnational climate action that emerged in the wake of Trump’s first withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017. One example was the formation of the U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of 24 governors committed to enacting state policies to reach net-zero emissions economywide by 2050.

Following Biden’s announcement, the alliance committed its members to the new 2035 goal.

“President Biden’s bold leadership is keeping us on a path to achieve a clean energy economy, and together, the country’s climate-leading governors will carry the torch forward,” said New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), co-chair of the alliance. “This new collective goal will serve as our North Star, guiding us in the years to come and keeping America on track toward a cleaner, safer future.”

“The only thing clearer than the science and impacts of climate change is the benefit of taking action ― and we’re not slowing down,” agreed Hochul’s co-chair, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D). “By continuing to stamp out climate pollution together, we’re safeguarding public health, protecting the environment, growing the economy and creating good jobs across the U.S.”

The White House said it will submit the new target to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat as the U.S.’ nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. Signed by 196 nations in December 2015, the agreement commits the nations to cutting emissions to limit the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

As part of its NDC, the U.S. would also cut its methane emissions by 35% by 2035, which the White House said “is among the fastest ways to reduce near-term warming and is an essential complement to CO2 emissions.”

The White House noted “there are multiple paths to meeting these targets, and U.S. federal, state, local, territorial and tribal governments have numerous tools available to work with civil society and the private sector to mobilize investment in the years ahead.”

A recent study from the University of Maryland, College Park found that with a whole-of-society approach that includes “enhanced ambitions,” the U.S. could achieve a 65% reduction in emissions by 2035. But the report anticipated that without federal support, emission reductions of only 48 to 60% might be achieved, highlighting “the impact that non-federal actors can still have despite uncertainties at the federal level.”

The NDC itself has yet to be released, but the announcement raised questions about the current state of U.S. and global climate action following Trump’s election victory and the contentious 29th U.N. Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan.

While advocates continue to talk about “keeping 1.5 alive,” global emissions and temperatures continue to rise. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said 2024 has been the hottest year on record, with 2023 now in second place.

The U.N.’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report called for a global reduction in GHG emissions of 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 or “the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-C goal will be gone within a few years.”

Speaking on background, a senior administration official noted that the U.S. is currently on track to reduce its emissions 45% by 2030, falling short of the 50 to 52% target Biden set for the U.S. in his 2021 NDC. But the new NDC would confirm a U.S. commitment to the consensus reached in 2023 at COP28 on a “just, orderly and equitable” transition away from fossil fuels in this decade.

The final agreement at COP29 avoided any action on that consensus, but the official noted that the U.S. NDC acknowledges that the country could take multiple pathways to accelerate decarbonization across the economy, while continuing to increase private sector investments.

The White House also consulted with cities, states and tribes, integrating an analysis of their goals into the NDC, a second senior official said. Echoing Gov. Hochul, the official said the NDC is intended as an impetus to cities, states and others to raise their ambitions on climate policy and action.

The new NDC almost certainly will be quickly discounted by Trump and the Republicans who will control both houses of Congress in a matter of weeks, and much uncertainty surrounds the fate of Biden’s signature climate legislation, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Trump campaigned on a pledge to claw back unspent funds from the laws, and some congressional Republicans are already taking aim at specific provisions of the IRA, such as its $7,500 electric vehicle tax credits, to help pay for extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which expire at the end of 2025.

At the same time, those laws have built “a complementary architecture of federal standards that spur demand and generate the regulatory certainty needed to accelerate capital formation and encourage entrepreneurial risk-taking. It is an important combination that has changed the equation” on climate action, National Climate Adviser Ali Zaidi said.

They have also channeled billions in federal dollars and private investment into Republican states and districts, a fact continually raised by Democrats hoping to defend the law’s tax credits and clean energy incentives.

The White House is stressing by-now familiar arguments that the U.S. clean energy transition has hit a tipping point, and its economic and technical momentum will continue, regardless of who’s in the Oval Office. As one of the senior officials said, what will likely change with Trump is the pace and the level of ambition.

EPA Approves Waiver for California’s Advanced Clean Cars II Rules

Just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, the Biden administration has given California permission to enforce rules that require all new cars sold in the state to be zero-emission by 2035. 

EPA on Dec. 18 approved a waiver for California’s Advanced Clean Cars II rules, which require an increasing percentage of cars sold in the state to be zero-emission each year until 2035, when all new cars sold must be ZEVs or plug-in hybrids. 

The agency also granted a waiver for California’s heavy-duty omnibus regulation, which sets emission standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. 

Opponents have 60 days to file a petition for review of the decisions. 

“Today’s actions follow through on EPA’s commitment to partner with states to reduce emissions and act on the threat of climate change,” Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. 

EPA’s decision also means the 11 other states that have adopted Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), along with D.C., can proceed with enforcement: Colorado, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.  

The Environmental Defense Fund noted that ACC II jurisdictions account for 33% of the U.S. new vehicle market. 

“EPA’s approval of these standards for California and numerous other states is a welcome action to reduce pollution, including in communities where it’s most needed,” Alice Henderson, EDF director and lead counsel for transportation and clean air policy, said in a statement. 

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopted Advanced Clean Cars II in August 2022, updating its previous Advanced Clean Cars regulations. (See California Adopts Rule Banning Gas-powered Car Sales in 2035.) 

ACC II begins with model year 2026, when 35% of new cars delivered for sale in California must be zero-emission. 

In addition to ZEV-transition requirements, the ACC II regulation includes low-emission vehicle (LEV) rules that set emission standards for cars with internal-combustion engines. 

ZEV Progress

California officials celebrated EPA’s approval of the two waivers. 

“Clean cars are here to stay,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement. “Naysayers like President-elect Trump would prefer to side with the oil industry over consumers and American automakers, but California will continue fostering new innovations in the market.” 

Officials noted that through the end of September, 2.1 million zero-emission cars had been sold in California, and 26.4% of new light-duty vehicles sold in the state in the third quarter of 2024 were ZEVs. 

“Consumers and fleets are increasingly making the choice to drive clean vehicles, and today’s waiver approvals will further that progress,” CARB Chair Liane Randolph said. 

Still, the EPA waivers — and other state climate policies — may face challenges under the new presidential administration.

During Trump’s first term as president, California filed more than 120 lawsuits challenging actions taken by his administration.

In a special session of the state legislature that began Dec. 2, lawmakers will consider funding for the state Department of Justice to quickly challenge actions taken by the Trump administration. Newsom convened the special session “to safeguard California values” — including the fight against climate change. (See Newsom Convening Legislature to Protect California ‘Values,’ Policies.) 

One tool often used to overturn federal agency rules following a change in administration — the Congressional Review Act — doesn’t apply to approved California waivers, Newsom’s office recently told the Los Angeles Times. 

But EPA waivers for other CARB regulations are still pending. Those include waivers for the Advanced Clean Fleets regulation, which requires truck fleets to transition to zero-emission vehicles; the in-use locomotive standards, which ban certain diesel-powered locomotives; and emission standards for small off-road engines, such as those used in landscaping equipment. 

Newsom traveled to D.C. last month to push for federal approval of pending items, including the Clean Air Act waivers, ahead of the incoming administration. 

“EPA continues reviewing additional waiver requests from California and is working to ensure its decisions are durable and grounded by law,” the agency said in a Dec. 18 release. 

Waiver Review

Under the federal Clean Air Act, California may adopt its own vehicle emission standards, but those rules must receive federal approval in the form of a waiver from EPA. Other states may then choose to stick with federal standards or adopt California’s rules. 

The idea is to strike a balance in which car manufacturers don’t face myriad emission standards, while allowing California to innovate on its own standards to combat poor air quality. 

The California standards must be in aggregate at least as stringent as the applicable federal standards. In deciding whether to grant a waiver, EPA considers three “prongs,” Regan explained in his 191-page decision. The burden of proof is on opponents to show that one of the reasons for denial has been met.  

The first is whether California was arbitrary and capricious in determining that its standards are at least as protective of public health and welfare as the federal standards. 

The second prong addresses whether California needs the standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. The third prong looks at whether the standards are consistent with a section of the Clean Air Act that pertains in part to the feasibility of technology in the lead time provided, taking cost into consideration. 

In his decision, Regan addressed many of the comments EPA received arguing for or against the ACC II waiver. Commenters brought up issues such as vehicle affordability, effects on the electric grid and availability of public charging. 

“Although commenters often referred to these topics to support their position that the ZEV standards either are or are not feasible … topics such as these are not within the scope of factors EPA may consider in evaluating consistency with [the Clean Air Act],” he wrote. 

Oklo, Commonwealth Fusion Unveil Ambitious Nuclear Plans

Two companies developing advanced nuclear technology recently made landmark announcements about their plans. 

Advanced nuclear fission reactor designer Oklo and data center developer Switch said Dec. 18 they had struck a 12-GW power agreement through 2044, saying it was one of the largest corporate clean power agreements ever signed. 

Commonwealth Fusion Systems, which calls itself the largest private-sector company advancing nuclear fusion technology, announced Dec. 17 it would build the first grid-scale commercial fusion plant in the early 2030s. 

Before these plans become reality, this week’s announcements must of course be followed by successful technology development, regulatory approval, siting and permitting processes, favorable public opinion, financing and other milestones. 

Small modular reactors like those Oklo is developing are widely considered to be several years from market-ready, and the running joke about commercially viable nuclear fusion is that it has been only 20 years away for the last half-century. 

But both companies claim a robust list of achievements as they continue on the path to workable and scalable solutions. 

The Oklo-Switch master power agreement is a nonbinding strategic partnership, a framework for collaboration that is expected to yield binding agreements as project milestones are reached. It calls for Oklo to develop and operate power plants to feed Switch facilities across the U.S. through a series of power purchase agreements. 

The master agreement fits with Oklo’s business model of selling power rather than selling power plants. It could accelerate Oklo’s early deployments and position it to scale up to meet the anticipated growth of demand. 

The agreement also serves the priorities of Switch, which says its mission is to build sustainable infrastructure while bolstering the voluntary market for clean and renewable energy. Since January 2016, it has been powering all its data centers with 100% renewable power — nearly 1 billion kWh of it per year. 

Commonwealth’s plan includes a nonfinancial collaboration with Dominion Energy to provide development and technical expertise, as well as leasing rights to a proposed site near Richmond, Va., that is owned by the utility. 

Commonwealth said it conducted a global search for a location to site its first commercial fusion plant. The company plans to independently finance, build, own and operate the facility, which it calls ARC and is expected to be rated about 400 MW. 

If it comes together as planned, ARC is expected to draw significant attention, capital investment and workforce development to that part of Virginia. 

“This is an historic moment for Virginia and the world at large,” Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) said in a news release. “Commonwealth Fusion Systems is not just building a facility; they are pioneering groundbreaking innovation to generate clean, reliable, safe power, and it’s happening right here in Virginia. We are proud to be home to this pursuit to change the future of energy and power.” 

Both Oklo and Commonwealth have attracted attention among the crowded fields in which SMRs and nuclear fusion are being developed. 

A rendering depicts the design for Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse. | Oklo

Oklo is advancing on multiple fronts with its design of advanced plants that run on nuclear waste. Earlier in 2024, it announced two agreements to supply a combined 850 MW of power to data centers, plus a letter of intent to supply 50 MW to a Permian Basin oil and gas producer. 

Commonwealth is developing SPARC, the fusion demonstration machine that it expects to first produce plasma in 2026. Soon after, it expects SPARC to produce net fusion energy as the first commercially relevant design to generate more power than it consumes.